How This Unusual Season Shattered the Traditional Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still