Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
